AMERICAN ISSUES PROJECT

Is there a doctor in the house? How about a nurse practitioner? If you think it is difficult to get in to see your doctor today just wait until Obamacare is passed. With the current Congressional plans to nationalize health care the democrats are looking to make severe doctor shortage even worse. The Association of American Medical Colleges recently predicted that by 2025 there would be a serious physician shortage in the US. In less than twenty years the United States will need over one hundred thousand doctors to fill the gap. Primary care doctors will account for over thirty percent of the total projected physician shortage. These numbers assume a continuation of the current supply and demand patterns here in the United States.

Our neighbors up north in Canada who live and die with a nationalized health care system are already experiencing a critical physician shortage. Many families are unable to find a regular physician. To make up for the shortage of doctors Canada now depends on importing physicians from outside the country. The CBC News reported on this health care trend in 2006:

In 2003, more than 1.2 million Canadians were unable to find a regular physician, according to Statistics Canada.

Canada also had many fewer physicians per capita in 2002 than most other developed countries with universal health-care insurance programs, a 2005 report by the institute said.

"Without a significant addition of foreign-trained doctors, the Canadian physician-to-population ratio will decline between now and 2015, just as it would have through the 1990s if foreign physicians had not been used to 'top up' the shortfall caused by insufficient medical school admissions," the report said.

"It is irresponsible for a wealthy, developed nation with a highly educated population to rely on international medical graduates to deliver health care to the population."

The doctor shortage is so bad in Canada that physicians are forced to find creative ways to manage the demand. One doctor in Northern Ontario uses a lottery to determine which patients would be ejected from his overloaded schedule. Dr. Ken Runciman says he reluctantly eliminated about 100 patients in two separate lotteries to avoid having to provide shoddy service or extend his work hours. Predictably, this move has divided the close-knit community of Powassan where the doctor resides.

The Canadian nationalized health care plan is so inefficient that a 2005 survey found that less than one in four Canadians were able to see a physician the same day they needed one. This placed Canada last among six nations in a study including the U.S., Great Britain and Australia.

Now democrats want to do the same thing to the US system. The US already is facing a doctor shortage.

"Due to population growth, aging and other factors, demand will outpace supply through at least 2025," they wrote. "Simply educating and training more physicians will not be enough to address these shortages. Complex changes such as improving efficiency, reconfiguring the way some services are delivered, and making better use of our physicians will also be needed."

The projected shortfall was attributed to a slowly expending physician workforce in the face of an expected 50% growth in the U.S, population and a doubling in patients older than 65.

Projecting current utilization trends, the report predicted that the demand for physicians would grow 26.3% from 2006 through 2025. It would require 859,300 physicians to meet that demand, but there will only be 734,900-resulting in a shortage of 124,400.

That is without the democrat's nationalized health care plan. The current plans proposed by democrats would put more stress on the system. Kevin MD reported that overall demand for physicians would go up by 4%, which would increase the shortfall by 25%, or an extra 31,000 physicians. This will cause longer waiting times, increased travel distances, shorter visit times, and higher prices. Kevin MD added this on doctor shortages under the democrat's plan.

It doesn't take a genius to see that Obama's plan, which will likely replicate the approach taken in Massachusetts, is doomed to fail if there are not enough primary care doctors to see the influx of newly insured patients. Without access to physicians, these patients will further crowd emergency departments, and health care costs will continue to spiral upwards. And since, as the piece notes, "the ratio of primary care doctors to population is higher in Massachusetts than in other states," I shudder to think of the disaster waiting to happen on a national scale.

This it troubling news indeed. If Congress passes Obamacare we can look forward to longer waiting times, higher premiums and a severe doctor shortage. If Congress really wanted to reform the system they won't destroy it with a nationalized public plan.

 

 

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