Although some say the U.S. economy has "turned
a corner" and Joe Biden says
of the stimulus, "In my wildest dreams, I never thought it would work this
well," the unemployment rate has reached a 26-year high and many Americans are
suffering. We have not lost the 500
million jobs a month that Nancy Pelosi wildly estimated if the stimulus had
not passed, but the numbers are abysmal.
If the economy has turned a corner and is on its way to
recovery, those looking for a job might not know it. Neil King wrote in the Wall
Street Journal that "Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said Sunday that
his own hunch was that the economy would turn around over coming months, but
that unemployment would 'penetrate the 10% barrier and stay there for a while before
we start down.'"
The most recent reports show the unemployment rate at 9.8
percent. That number doesn't tell the
whole story though. There are many
unemployed Americans not included in that figure. Worse still, even if the economy is in
recovery, it may be well
into 2010 before the effects are felt in the job market.
If that is in fact what happens, the ranks of the unemployed
next year may just be joined by some current members of Congress. The latest
Gallup poll shows Americans are not happy with the job the Congress is
doing. The current approval rating is at
21 percent, down from 31 percent last month.
Those in Congress surely know it too.
In
late 2003, when economic growth surged "at the fastest pace in nearly two
decades" with the gross domestic product (GDP) growing at a 7.2 percent rate,
those in Congress hoping to convince voters that George Bush's policies were
failing pointed to the unemployment numbers. To draw attention away from the
incredible growth numbers, Democrats pointed to the job market which lagged
behind other economic indicators.
In August 2003, reacting to a July unemployment rate of 6.2
percent, Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi asked "Where
are the jobs, Mr. President." With
the current unemployment rate at 9.8 percent and many predicting it will go
higher over the coming months, House Speaker Pelosi should be asking that
question even more emphatically than she did six years ago. But since her party controls the White House
and both chambers of Congress, I don't think she will be calling the public's
attention to the dreadful employment situation.
Not calling attention to the problem is not going to make it
go away in the minds of voters. In fact,
a lack of adequate attention to the jobs problem is what could cost many in
Congress their seats. Voters who are
unemployed or know someone unemployed are going to wonder about the priority being
put on the employment issue, especially when compared to some of the issues
currently being debated.
As a reader recently put it when explaining one reason the
numbers of those on the left have taken a dive, it is because they are
"concentrating on insurance/medical care when unemployment is soaring. Seven in eight are satisfied with their
medical care/insurance. One in two college graduates do not have a job. Parents of those college graduates who doled
out thousands upon thousands of dollars are not pleased."
Many more are not
pleased that the Congress has moved so far to the left in general, but the
employment issue in particular is one that tends to move public opinion. If the public sees the liberal agenda of
those in Congress as contributing to the loss of jobs, the electoral effect
will definitely be seen next year.
Of course, how the public reacts in the voting booth to the
unemployment numbers will depend in part on their impression of the
situation. During the Bush years,
unemployment rates several points lower than those we see now prompted scores
of news reports of gloom and doom. With
the current rate of 9.8 percent though, we often see headlines like this recent
one at the New
York Times: "Obama Aides Act to Fix
Safety Net." If the White House and
Congress can convince voters (through positive media like that) they are
working hard to address the problem, maybe they won't pay such a high price on
Election Day 2010.
A lot can happen between now and then, but there is one
thing of which I am fairly certain -- Nancy Pelosi is not going to be able to
blame the employment rate next year on George Bush.
Lorie Byrd's Bio
Lorie Byrd is a stay-at-home mom from North Carolina with a passion for politics. She is a columnist for Townhall.com and a contributing editor to the Wizbang Blog.com .
Posted
10-08-2009 12:01 AM
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