AMERICAN ISSUES PROJECT

With Al Franken’s slow-motion win in the just-decided Minnesota race, liberalism seems permanently entrenched in Washington. “Progressives” are crowing about a 60-seat Senate majority, combined with an overwhelming majority in the House of Representatives, and the most liberal president in decades. With government-run health care, environmental reform, labor union empowerment and more new spending on the agenda, liberals are calling all the shots.

But while liberals talk as if conservatism is dead, it's becoming clear that the comeback has already begun. All you have to do is look at the polls of upcoming races to see that across America, voters seem inclined to replace liberals with conservatives.

Presidential elections may come just once every four years, but off-year races are always with us. In 2009, there are just two major statewide races to watch: gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia. When Republicans won both these races in 1993, it was a foreshadowing of their sweep in the Congressional and gubernatorial races of 1994. Will Republicans take both statehouses? The early indications are encouraging.

Democrats have a head of steam in Virginia; they've won the last two gubernatorial elections, the last two Senate races, and the 2008 presidential vote. Nevertheless, conservative Bob McDonnnell trails his opponent by just six points. And in New Jersey, liberal incumbent Jon Corzine is deeply unpopular and trails challenger Chris Christie in most polls. Corzine has won consistently in New Jersey, but he is now the clear underdog.

Looking ahead to 2010, conservative candidates seem far stronger than expected, as well. Starting with Senate races, Chris Dodd looks to face the race of his life in Connecticut, as ethics questions seem to have damaged him severely. Despite the state's deep blue tinge, the liberal Dodd seems to have little hope for re-election.

In New York, appointed Senator Kirsten Gillibrand will face a primary challenge from Representative Carolyn Maloney. Maloney has the edge in experience and is closer to the state’s primary voters on the issues. She’s also likely to raise enough money to be competitive. But with a potentially divisive primary, and a deeply unpopular Governor, several more conservative candidates are considering the race: former Governor George Pataki and Representative Peter King. This race is likely to be competitive, at least.

In Pennsylvania, Arlen Specter was expected to cruise to re-election after switching parties. His liberal voting record was said to be perfect for the state. Instead, he faces a serious primary challenge from a more conservative candidate, Congressman Joe Sestak. Former Congressman Pat Toomey has rallied conservatives behind him, and he's likely to focus on raising money and waiting for a battered nominee to emerge. In either case, Toomey will be the more conservative candidate, and he should be a strong contender.

In Colorado, appointed Senator Michael Bennet has stumbled out of the gate; not surprising for an official who has never sought elective office in his life. A survey by Public Policy Polling shows that more voters disapprove of the job he’s doing than approve – a clear sign of trouble ahead. Several conservative challengers have emerged.

Senate races in Illinois and Delaware are likely to be watched especially closely, since those seats were formerly held by the President and Vice President. In Illinois, Congressman Mark Kirk is eyeing the race, and is seen as one of the GOP’s strongest statewide contenders in years. In Delaware, Republican Congressman Mike Castle has a significant lead in polls over Joe Biden’s son, Beau. If either of these challengers prevails, it will represent a stunning shift to the right for either state. The fact that both states seem prepared to reject the liberal legacies of Obama and Biden is shocking.

And if strong challengers in the home states of the President and Vice President suggest concern with the nation’s direction, that message becomes even clearer when you consider the extreme weakness of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. Forty-five percent of Nevadans say they will definitely vote to replace him next year. More Nevadans view him unfavorably than favorably, a shock for someone who has consistently been reelected by Nevada voters.

Conservative candidates seem strong in gubernatorial races, as well. In Pennsylvania for example, a Republican candidate is leading in polling for governor for the first time in eleven years. State Attorney General Tom Corbett leads his potential opponent Dan Onorato by a margin of 34%-29%.

In Michigan, several conservatives are running for the chance to replace outgoing Governor Jennifer Granholm. The only liberal candidate who is competitive in polling is Senator Stabenow, and that probably reflects her high name identification more than anything else. Given the state’s deep recession, Michigan voters seem eager for a change of direction. Liberal incumbents are defending the governorships in Tennessee, Kansas, and Oklahoma. In each of these states, conservatives have a better than even chance of winning.

And in New York, Ohio, Colorado, Massachusetts, and Maryland, liberal incumbents face strong headwinds in their reelection bids. David Paterson in New York is unlikely to win re-nomination, which would actually make a liberal win more likely. Ohio Governor Ted Strickland is in a dead heat with challenger John Kasich in the most recent survey. Colorado Governor Bill Ritter trails potential challenger Scott McInnis by 48%-41%, and receives poor grades overall from residents of the state. Deval Patrick too, trails his likely GOP challenger, Christy Mihos, by 41%-40%. In Maryland, Governor O’Malley already has one announced conservative opponent, and could face a challenge from former Governor Bob Ehrlich. O’Malley’s record of tax increases and spending cuts may have left him vulnerable.

So while progressives focus on their victory in the presidential race eight months ago, or plan for the agenda they can implement with the help of 60 Senators, the ground is already shifting under their feet. The electorate is worried about government expansion, repeated statist interventions, tax increases, and inflation. And rather than ratify the turn to the left last year, they seem likely to shift back to the center right at the first opportunity.

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